AI Ball · Matches · More

Public track record

Every finished match with a locked pre-match call, and whether it was right. Numbers are recounted from the record on each request; nothing here is typed in by hand.

When the model is more sure, is it right more often?

ConfidenceMatchesModelAlways the favourite
Under 50%36049.7% (179/360)48.9% (176/360)
50 – 55%16349.1% (80/163)49.1% (80/163)
55 – 60%13455.2% (74/134)55.2% (74/134)
60 – 70%15667.9% (106/156)67.9% (106/156)
70% and above14883.8% (124/148)83.8% (124/148)
Total, 50% and above60163.9% (384/601)63.9% (384/601)
All matches96158.6% (563/961)58.3% (560/961)

The highlighted rows are where the model is sure enough to publish a call — from 50% confidence up. The column beside it is what the same matches would give you by always siding with the market's favourite. On these matches the two have so far made the same call every time; the calls diverge only below 50% confidence, where the model has been right 19 times and the favourite 16.

Most recent 50 matches